Trump has posted a video finally clarifying who would get the $5,000 checks if Republicans win the midterm elections.
After weeks of confusion, Donald Trump has finally confirmed exactly who would receive the $5,000 checks he’s promised. In a new video, he said they would go to all adult citizens, but only if Republicans win the midterm elections.
The video was part of a series he released on Monday, October 12. “I am going to give all adult citizens in the United States of America $5,000,” he said.
“Democrat policies won’t allow this to happen, in fact, the opposite, they are going to raise your taxes. If the Democrats win, you will have an economic depression, if the Republicans win you will each have $5,000 in your pocket, and economic success for our country, like we have never ever seen before.”
Why people were so confused
Trump announced the plan on September 9. “If the Republicans win, you win with us and you get $5,000,” he said. Earlier this month, he described the payment two different ways on the same day. In a Truth Social post, he wrote that the money would go to “every U.S. Citizen if, and when, the Republicans win the Midterm Elections.” At an event in Alabama, he said it would go to “all adult citizens.”
The difference is about 73 million people, since children would be left out of the second version. Paying every citizen $5,000 would cost around $1.7 trillion. Paying adults only would still come to about $1.3 trillion.
Where would the money come from, and is realistic?
The money would come from tariffs. “Because of tariffs, we are taking in hundreds of billions of dollars of profits,” he said at an Oval Office event. Vice President JD Vance has also said tariff revenue could fund it, describing it as a dividend for American workers.
The numbers don’t really add up, however. Estimates put the cost of paying every adult citizen at roughly $1.2 to $1.3 trillion, not counting the cost of sending the money out. Net tariff revenue was about $195 billion in the last fiscal year, according to the Treasury Department, and has run lower since, The Center Square reported.
The Tax Foundation, a tax policy think tank, estimates that a year of revenue from the new tariffs would cover only about a tenth of the cost, and that it would take almost a decade of collections to cover it.
Refunds to importers have also cut into net customs revenue. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has also pointed out that tariff revenue is already counted in the government’s deficit projections.
The only left option is borrowing money. The US national debt recently passed $40 trillion, and the government is running a deficit of close to $1.8 trillion a year, according to Euronews. Newsweek reported that without enough tariff revenue or spending cuts, Congress could approve the payments without fully offsetting them.
Congress would still have to approve the checks
AP reported that even if Republicans keep control of Congress, lawmakers would still have to vote on the payments. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has questioned whether the plan could get the votes it needs in the Senate.
Polling by The Economist and YouGov found that 61% of people said Trump would never follow through, and only 21% said he would. 45% said they don’t support the plan, and 43% said they do.
This isn’t the first direct-payment idea Trump has floated, this is the third one since February 2025: the DOGE savings rebate, a $2,000 tariff dividend, and now the $5,000 dividend. None of them have reached taxpayers as of now.
